I realize that my predictive capabilities are suspect. This year in particular reminds me that it was about fifteen years ago that I predicted that 2024 would be the year that Texas “went Blue.” Ho-boy. Well, here we are in 2024. There have been other missteps, to be sure; this is just one of the most egregious that comes to mind.
But it helps that I discount the entire “March of Progress” worldview; whether it be the liberal social utopian fantasy, or the conservative economic/technical utopian fantasy. History may unfold in ways that dismay me; but I will rarely be surprised by it. With that caveat in mind, I think I am on somewhat firma terra to cautiously suggest the following:
The 2024 Election:
The race: All media outlets, mainstream or otherwise, will cast this as the defining event of world history–the “End of History,” if you will, upon which everything rises or falls.
The election: If one side wins, the other side will: a) claim that it is illegitimate, b) claim that allowing the “win” to stand will be the end of our world as we know it, c) thus necessitating extraordinary actions to prevent that, and d) all within a “constitutional” framework, of course, of course. If the other side wins…well, see a), b), c), and d) above.
The Presidency: Chances are that whoever walks into the White House after the inauguration in January 2025 will exit the White House with the aid of a walker (or worse, a stretcher.)
Ukraine:
By the end of 2024 Americans will have once again resumed their normative stance of not being able to find Ukraine on a map (of course, if they had been able to do so to begin with, then at least they would have realized what the war was actually about.) President Biden has stated that Vladimir Putin has already lost the war. I predict that Putin will continue to lose the war, right up to the Dnieper River and/or the Moldovan border.
Gaza and Israel and the Middle East:
Israel will consolidate its transformation of Gaza into a parking lot. The American government will continue to uphold Israel unthinkingly. Many thinking Americans, as well as the rest of the world, will not; but any criticism of Israel will of course be labeled as anti-semitism. So Israel has won a battle, but has decisively lost the war. There are no solutions with the situation Israel has created. In such cases, natural solutions have to play themselves out; in this case, demographics. Many Israelis with dual passports have looked on Israel as retirement resort living, so to speak. It’s no resort, however, when the natives start taking potshots at you from behind the palm trees. Look for these citizens to start digging through their desk drawers for their old passports. Meanwhile, the usual suspects will be clamoring for a wider confrontation; expect a Gulf of Tonkin or WMD moment.
The rest of the world:
The U.S. will continue to huff and puff about China and Taiwan and Iran. Depending on just how foolish the American policy-makers actually are, it should come to nothing more than that. Meanwhile, the BRICS nations will continue to create the emerging multi-polar world while we pretend nothing has changed. Americans will remain blissfully clueless to our complicity in the death, destruction, and homelessness on several continents.
Domestically:
There will be no dimunation of the American paving of paradise, though the birds will still chirp and the squirrels will still scurry about my little island of sanity and serenity. Finally, should I see the end of 2024, I will remain as supremely ignorant of the who and why of Taylor Swift as I am today.
Interesting you are so confident about Russia losing the war. Anecdotal evidence from priests I've talked to (Russian, Ukrainian, and Romanian) have all been telling me of how demoralizing things have gotten for Ukraine, and how international attitudes reflect a Russian rebound (even the balkan countries have hemmed and hawed about trade with Ukrainian grain, etc...).