Reaping the Whirlwind

lands you here

(as always, follow the footnotes, where some of the best stuff hides.)

I had lunch with one of my favorite godsons yesterday.¹ As is so often the case when friends get together, the subject of conversation soon turned to President James Buchanan. American historians—armchair and academics alike—love nothing better than ranking Presidents, and then, of course, arguing with others whose lists differ. In most every case, however, President Buchanan is either ranked at the very bottom, or hugged-up to the man who is. His ignominy rests on his dilettantish inaction in the four long months between the Election of 1860 and the inauguration of Abraham Lincoln. I have never read a historical defense of Buchanan.

I avoid using the term “great” in my personal classifications. I note a handful of the usual Exceptional Presidents, followed by a few Above Average Presidents, a broad expanse of Mediocre Presidents, some Poor Presidents, and then those who are simply The Worst. My criteria for placing any one of them in the Presidential Dungeon leans heavily on my antiwar sensibilities: those presidents who, either by their actions or inactions, have unleashed generational death and destruction, bringing harm to ourselves and others. In short, these are the Presidents who have the most blood on their hands.

Andrew Johnson was a truly bad President, but using my benchmark, he does not deserve to be enumerated among the worst. Lyndon Baines Johnson and George W. Bush, however most decidely do deserve the appellation (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, NATO expansion, etc.). I am strongly tempted to toss Woodrow Wilson, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden down to join the other miscreants (the Great War, the Treaty of Versailles, NATO expansion, Belgrade, Kosovo, NATO again and Ukraine). I realize, however, that I would be letting my personal animosity towards their foreign policies color my reasoning. So for now, at least, they still cling to the bottom stratum of Poor Presidents.

Notice that my Presidential inmates and wannabees are bi-partisan. The partisan spin so many put on these characterizations frustrates me. The Imperial project transcends party divides. For decades I listened to those on the Right curse Jimmy Carter was the worst President ever; that is, until Barack Obama came along. The latter was tagged as “the Worst” almost before he took office, which hints at the disturbing motivation behind the charge. Both of these Presidents were solidly mediocre, there were, and are, far worse contenders. During the same period, Lefties demonized Ronald Reagan, a mixed-bag, to be sure. But whether you characterize him as mediocre or above average, he also is far from the worst.

But Trump unbound, in his second iteration, is something altogether different, sweeping past the pedestrian crimes of Buchanan, Johnson, and Bush. His callous complicity in the genocide of Gaza set the tone for what was to follow, foreign policy as spectacle: the 12-Day War, diversionary “Peace Plans” and “Peace Talks”, Greenland, Venezuela, decapitation attemps (including one in Russia), the ludicrous Board of Peace, Rubio’s “Reconquista Speech”, etc. But none of that compares to what he unleashed on the 28th of February. On that day, Trump embarked on the most foolish, ill-conceived, invincibly ignorant foreign policy misadventure in modern history. And that is saying something. I struggle to find a historical comparison. The only thing that comes to mind is Hitler’s invasion of Russia.

What do we make of it? In a 1997 interview with the New York Times, George F. Kennan charged that President Clinton’s expansion of NATO into eastern Europe “would be the most fateful error in American foreign policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” Bush in 2008, Obama in 2014, and Biden and Trump in the years following 2022 have proved Kennan correct once more. But in light of the path Trump has chosen, Kennan’s concern seems almost quaint.

Despite efforts to tamp it out, a vigorous debate is now underway concerning Israel’s influence and/or control over this Adminstration’s decision-making. These are the right questions that need to be asked—but we should avoid a “tail wagging the dog” conclusion. No doubt Trump did receive bad intel from the Pentagon and the Israelis; just as he as he was too incurious to consider good intel that conflicted with his presuppositions. Yes, Christian Zionist warpigs such as Lindsey Graham have Trump’s ear. So does Mirian Adelsen. It has been suggested that Bibi has certain leverage over the President. And yet, there is ample evidence that Trump has been obsessed with Iran all along. The overthrow of Iran has been has been a consistent American objective long before Trump.

So Bibi’s influence ultimately does not matter now. Empires will do what empires do. Emperors can spend decades saber-rattling. They do not have to do this. This one is all on Trump.² This obstinate act of stupidity defines his Presidency. Whatever legacy he or his supporters hoped for is now shattered. Whatever is left of his Presidency (which may be considerably less than three years) will be spent trying to obscure the ramifications of what he has wrought.

For all DJT’s usual bluster about winning, the real picture is altogether different. Let’s consider his original objectives, to the extent they are knowable.

1. Regime Change: The Administration anticipated a swift decapitation strike, followed by civil unrest which would, in turn, lead to the formation of a new friendly government (even though Israeli intentions were more exacting). We even had a Shah-in-Waiting. True, we assassinated the leader of 200 to 260 million Shia Muslims, along with innocent members of his family. They are now martyrs, and a new leader has been selected without incident. The government continues on as before, only more radicalized and more under the influence of the IRGC. What opposition there was (always overblown, I think) has largely evaporated as Iranians have rallied to their government, just as we would if attacked by a belligerent bully. And has anyone heard a peep from the mini-Shah in the last couple of weeks? So the verdict here is Epic Fail.

2. Destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon capacity: Of course, the President assured us that this was resolved back in the 12-Day War. The American governing oligarchy has always refused to believe that Iran was not building a nuclear bomb. I suppose they cannot imagine anyone acting differently than we would. The issue was painstakingly addressed by the JCPOA, which Trump dumped, largely I think, because it was an initiative of President Obama. No matter, the late Ayatollah had a fatwa against Iran constructing a nuclear bomb, finding it to be in conflict with the tenets of Islam.³ But we killed him, which eliminates that obstacle to the development of nuclear weapons. His successor, considering recent events, may be less inclined in this direction. In recent days, Trump said we had to act because Iran was within two weeks of having a nuclear bomb that they would use on Israel and the rest of the Middle East (?). Of course, this is the same song that Netanyahu has been singing for over thirty years. Disappointingly, Vice President JD Vance piled-on, suggesting that Iran could develop nuclear “suicide vests.” And yet, the sources within our government tasked with knowing these things have repeatedly stated that there was no evidence of Iran engaging in activity leading to the creation of nuclear weapons. But the voice of reason only speaks to those with a willing ear, which DJT does not possess. And indeed, if you are a public figure in this country, speaking too loudly against invading Iran and/or Israel’s push for us to do so is one way to get yourself killed.⁴ On the other side of this conflict, I suspect Iran will indeed pursue obtaining nuclear weapons, either by development or by gift.⁵ Better to be North Korea than Libya. And once they have them, the Saudis and Turks will follow suite in short order, bringing Israel’s nuclear monopoly in the Middle East to a screeching halt. So the verdict here seems headed for another Epic Fail.

3. Destruction of Iran’s long-range ballistic missile capacity: Events in recent days expose the fact that the U.S./Israel had little real knowledge of the extent of Iran’s stockpile of weapons, and even less of what missiles they have remaining. Bombs fall on Israel,⁶ and Kuwait,⁷ and Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and the UAE, Diego Garcia, and our ships in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The verdict on this objective is also well on its way to an Epic Fail.

The obvious, embarrassing defeat of our stated objectives is only the beginning. A yawning global economic, social, and geopolitical catastrophe is slowly unfolding. It is unclear just widely this is understood in the West. The Global South sees it clearly; and a growing number in the U.S. sense what may be coming.⁸ Consider the following, in no particular order:

• 20% to 25% of the world’s oil supply has simply been taken out of the equation with damage to the oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. The reopening of the Straits of Hormuz will not change that.

• 20% of the world’s supply of LNG has also been removed—long-term.

• The Straits of Hormuz remains closed to the West, but open to everyone else. Attempts to open it militarily are not viable or sustainable.

• At least 13 U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf have been made uninhabitable, according to the Pentagon.⁹

• A ground operation is anticipated, probably on one or more of the islands in the Straits of Hormuz. We should reflect on how this has worked for us in the past. This may trigger widespread, open opposition to the war by Americans. Or we may meekly go along with it.

• For the first time in our history, we are fighting an adversary that has the full intel support of other desgnated adversaries: the largest country in the world, and the most populated country in the world. In short, we will be fighting a proxy war against Russia and China, similar to the proxy war we are currently losing against Russia in Ukraine.

• The U.A.E. and Qatar are no longer the safe American-protected enclaves of the past. They may never again be a desired investment destination. Money is already flowing out to Hong Kong and/or Singapore. Guest workers account for 90% of the population in Dubai. What happens when those jobs dry up and they have to return home?

• Bahrain, ruled by a Sunni monarch, is 80% Shia Muslim.

• Iran has exposed the fragility of urban life in the Gulf, with their attacks on desalinization plants. This is the real Achilles heel of the Persian Gulf. 4.2 million people were not meant to live in Riyadh, and cannot with these plants.

• Russia produces 40% of the world’s commercial fertilizer for export. Another 20% came from the Gulf. What happens when European farmers have neither fertilizer for their crops nor diesel for their tractors?

• China has started cutting off the export of rare earths.

• And perhaps worst of all, the U.S. has precious little control over its rogue vassal state. If cornered, Israel will use a nuclear weapon against Iran.

This is just a starter list. It is clear that tough times lie ahead for us—and much tougher times for Europeans, lacking our reserves and resources. This may be both beginning and end: the beginning of a wider war—already being called World War III, and the end of American hegemonic impunity. Whatever emerges will not be a continuation of the way the world worked before 28 February 2026. That much is certain. Wise leaders will begin beating a path to certain doors; none of which will be in Washington DC.

1. In truth, I am pretty crazy about all of them.

2. I am inclined to blame Christian Zionists and Netanyahu for many of our ills. But at the end of the day, the former do not drive the Empire, but are useful tools of the oligarchs who do. The latter, while certainly an arrogant, obnoxious, deranged warmonger, is only the leader of a vassal state.

3. I think building nuclear weapons is in conflict with Christianity…but what do I know?

4. Charlie Kirk.

5. North Korea.

6. Haaretz puts the number at 80% for Iranian drones reaching their targets.

7. In retaliation for an attack on an Iranian steel mill, one of Kuwait’s main desalinization plants was hit.

8. This understanding excludes Europe’s governing elites, who remain blinkered and clueless.

9. h/t to Brad Hoff.